The Real Cost of Market Timing

Every investor has felt it. That nagging voice saying “maybe I should wait” when markets are high, or “maybe I should get out” when headlines turn dark. It feels like common sense to buy low and sell high. But here’s the problem: by the time you know whether the market is actually high or low, the opportunity has already passed.

Nobody Can Consistently Predict Market Moves

Market timing mistakes start with a flawed assumption—that anyone can reliably call highs and lows. Professional fund managers, with research teams and sophisticated tools, don’t get it right consistently. By the time economic news reaches your inbox, markets have already priced it in. And even if you somehow nail the exit, you still have to be right a second time about when to get back in. That’s two perfect calls in a row.

Missing the Recovery Costs More Than You’d Think

Here’s what makes market timing mistakes so costly: the strongest market days tend to cluster around the weakest ones. Markets often rebound sharply after steep drops, usually before the news cycle improves or sentiment shifts. If you sell during a downturn and wait for conditions to “feel safe” before getting back in, you’re likely to miss the recovery entirely. You end up locking in losses by selling low, then buying back in after prices have already recovered. The exact opposite of the goal.

Emotions Disguise Themselves as Logic

When markets drop 15% and financial headlines scream crisis, fear feels like prudence. When markets hit new highs and everyone at the dinner party is talking about their gains, confidence feels like validation. But these emotional responses lead to the exact opposite of what investors intend. You sell after the decline (low) and buy back after the recovery (high). The feeling of making a smart move is often the signal you’re making a market timing mistake.

The Hidden Costs Add Up Quickly

Every sale triggers potential tax consequences. Transaction fees chip away at returns. And while you’re sitting in cash waiting for your moment, you’re earning almost nothing while inflation erodes purchasing power. Meanwhile, invested dollars compound through dividends and growth. Time out of the market suddenly becomes expensive.

What Works Better Than Timing

Staying invested through complete market cycles historically produces better outcomes than jumping in and out. Rebalancing on a set schedule removes emotion from the process. Having a plan that expects volatility, rather than trying to avoid it, keeps you from making reactive decisions. For new money, dollar-cost averaging smooths out entry points without requiring perfect timing.

The real value of working with an advisor often shows up in moments of panic. When every instinct says to sell, having someone who can provide perspective and keep you invested might be the difference between reaching your goals and falling short.

Detalus and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal, or accounting advise. You should consult with your tax, legal, or accounting advisor before engaging in these types of transactions.

This material was prepared by Oechsli Institute, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.